Whenever Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, spoke
about the state of the U.S. economy, carefully choosing every word and
not saying anything too inflammatory one way or the other, financial experts
would scurry off, squinting at the transcript of his comments and trying
to read between the lines, trying to figure out what he really meant.
That's how it has become with FIFA President Sepp Blatter and the 2010
World Cup.
A year ago, when asked about South Africa's ever-tenuous state of preparations,
Blatter said: 'Plan A is South Africa, Plan B is South Africa, Plan C
is South Africa and Plan D is South Africa.'
Ten days ago, when asked about South Africa's ever-tenuous state of preparations,
Blatter said: 'I would be quite negligent as president if I did not have
a Plan B tucked away at the back of a drawer.'
An innocent slip of the tongue? Or a calculated choice of words?
Blatter explained he also had a Plan B tucked away at the back of a drawer
for the 2006 World Cup in Germany, and his Plan B for South Africa would
only become 'active' in the event of a 'natural catastrophe' and only
after the 2009 FIFA Confederations Cup in South Africa.
Which means, exactly, what?
You'd have to operate on a tremendous amount of naivete and faith to award
an event of the magnitude of the World Cup to a continent with as many
development issues as Africa and not have contingency plans from the beginning.
So that much probably hasn't changed.
What has changed is Blatter's admission that FIFA will wait to make a
decision until after next summer's Confederations Cup, a World Cup dry
run with eight teams over two weeks. If something goes wrong, that allows
him to point to hard evidence, as opposed to unsubstantiated speculation,
as the basis of his change of heart. It gives him an escape route.
That also drastically limits FIFA's options in terms of alternative hosts.
With less than a year to organize a World Cup, there are probably only
two realistic candidates: Germany, which could just press replay on its
successful 2006 tournament; and the United States, which has roughly 30
NFL stadiums sitting vacant every June and which is the master of organizing
big events, even on short notice.
The United States has bailed out FIFA before, when the 2003 Women's World
Cup was yanked from China just months before the tournament because of
the SARS virus. And considering the United States is actively pursuing
another men's World Cup, the first call from Blatter next summer could
be to Sunil Gulati, the president of U.S. Soccer.
Gulati insists he has not been contacted by Blatter and remains supportive
of South Africa.
'We're fully focused on qualifying for the World Cup and excited to be
playing in South Africa,' Gulati says. 'Every country faces challenges,
and in some ways we weren't ready for our first game (when the United
States hosted in 1994) until five minutes before kickoff.'
Now try doing it with only 10 or 11 months notice.
There are the obvious logistical nightmares - securing enough hotel rooms
in cities that book conventions five and six years out, arranging transportation
for 32 teams, distributing millions of tickets, coordinating security
plans. There also is the notion that the World Cup's true value, at least
in the fickle realm of American soccer, comes more in the buildup than
the actual event in terms of sponsorship and grassroots interest.
But if the FIFA president calls, you don't say no. You might bargain for
some future concessions - another World Cup, say, in 2022 or 2026 - but
you don't say no.
A bigger question is whether Blatter makes the call in the first place.
Just yesterday, FIFA announced the new stadium in Port Elizabeth has been
scratched from the Confederations Cup lineup because it won't be ready
in time. South Africa is building five new stadiums and renovating five
others, and Port Elizabeth was to be the only new facility used at the
Confederations Cup. What does that say about the progress of the others?
The crime rate in cities such as Johannesburg is among the highest on
the planet, and the recent spasm of xenophobic attacks against immigrants
- there were reports of car tires being put around people and then set
on fire - seems certain to further deter foreign visitors in 2010.
Unemployment is estimated at 40 percent. The transportation network remains
erratic. There are fears of electricity outages. Just last month, a government
energy official told Parliament the country faces severe fuel shortages
in 2010 'unless something drastic is done.'
But South Africa remains undeterred, undaunted, forging ahead while the
rest of the world doubts it, supremely confident everything will somehow
get done.
'Obviously, FIFA must have a plan if we suffered a major natural catastrophe,
but that is all,' says Danny Jordaan, the head of the organizing committee.
'I have spoken to Blatter and he reaffirmed that only God can prevent
South Africa from staging the World Cup in 2010.'
Of course, Blatter has been accused of considering himself and God to
be the same thing.
